Yes, and firms already experiment with different economic mechanisms to produce this self-generated information—this is just compensation and employee benefits, including stock options, commissions, bonuses. In this frame, it’s seems like a bad idea to let employees bet against, like projects shipping on time. A negative stake is the least aligned form of compensation possible. There are hacks on top of a pure prediction market you could do to prevent people from having a negative stake. But I think once you realize that the recursive aspect of the market you may as well just … design good compensation.
I’m also more enthusiastic about prediction markets on things mostly outside of employees’ control that are still relevant to business decisions—market trends, actions of competitors and regulators, consumer preferences maybe. Though there’s less reason for these to be internal.
Yes, and firms already experiment with different economic mechanisms to produce this self-generated information—this is just compensation and employee benefits, including stock options, commissions, bonuses. In this frame, it’s seems like a bad idea to let employees bet against, like projects shipping on time. A negative stake is the least aligned form of compensation possible. There are hacks on top of a pure prediction market you could do to prevent people from having a negative stake. But I think once you realize that the recursive aspect of the market you may as well just … design good compensation.
I’m also more enthusiastic about prediction markets on things mostly outside of employees’ control that are still relevant to business decisions—market trends, actions of competitors and regulators, consumer preferences maybe. Though there’s less reason for these to be internal.