Good points. Unfortunately it seems even harder to infer “destruction of potential” from the Metaculus forecasts. It seems plausible that AI could cause destruction of potential without any deaths at all, and so this wouldn’t be covered by the Metaculus series.
I also think it’s easier to forecast extinction in general, partly because it’s a much clearer threshold, whereas there are some scenarios that some people might count as an “existential catastrophe” and others might not. (E.g., Bostrom’s “plateauing — progress flattens out at a level perhaps somewhat higher than the present level but far below technological maturity”.)
Good points. Unfortunately it seems even harder to infer “destruction of potential” from the Metaculus forecasts. It seems plausible that AI could cause destruction of potential without any deaths at all, and so this wouldn’t be covered by the Metaculus series.
Yeah, totally agreed.
I also think it’s easier to forecast extinction in general, partly because it’s a much clearer threshold, whereas there are some scenarios that some people might count as an “existential catastrophe” and others might not. (E.g., Bostrom’s “plateauing — progress flattens out at a level perhaps somewhat higher than the present level but far below technological maturity”.)