The Metaculus community forecast has chance of >95% dead (7.5%) close to chance of >10% dead (9.7%) for AI. Based on this and my own intuition about how AI risks “scale”, I extrapolated to 6% for 100% dead. For biological and nuclear war, there’s a much bigger drop off from >10% to >95% from the community. It’s hard to say what to infer from this about the 100% case. There are good arguments that 100% is unlikely from both, but some of those arguments would also cut against >95%. I didn’t do a careful examination and so take all these numbers with a grain of salt.
The Metaculus community forecast has chance of >95% dead (7.5%) close to chance of >10% dead (9.7%) for AI. Based on this and my own intuition about how AI risks “scale”, I extrapolated to 6% for 100% dead. For biological and nuclear war, there’s a much bigger drop off from >10% to >95% from the community. It’s hard to say what to infer from this about the 100% case. There are good arguments that 100% is unlikely from both, but some of those arguments would also cut against >95%. I didn’t do a careful examination and so take all these numbers with a grain of salt.