Conventional risks are events that already have a background chance of happening (as of 2020 or so) and does not include future technologies.
Yeah, that aligns with how I’d interpret the term. I asked about advanced biotech because I noticed it was absent from your answer unless it was included in “super pandemic”, so I was wondering whether you were counting it as a conventional risk (which seemed odd) or excluding it from your analysis (which also seems odd to me, personally, but at least now I understand your short-AI-timelines-based reasoning for that!).
I am going read through the database of existential threats though, does it include what you were referring too?
Yeah, I think all the things I’d consider most important are in there. Or at least “most”—I’d have to think for longer in order to be sure about “all”.
There are scenarios that I think aren’t explicitly addressed in any estimates that database, like things to do with whole-brain emulation or brain-computer interfaces, but these are arguably covered by other estimates. (I also don’t have a strong view on how important WBE or BCI scenarios are.)
Yeah, that aligns with how I’d interpret the term. I asked about advanced biotech because I noticed it was absent from your answer unless it was included in “super pandemic”, so I was wondering whether you were counting it as a conventional risk (which seemed odd) or excluding it from your analysis (which also seems odd to me, personally, but at least now I understand your short-AI-timelines-based reasoning for that!).
Yeah, I think all the things I’d consider most important are in there. Or at least “most”—I’d have to think for longer in order to be sure about “all”.
There are scenarios that I think aren’t explicitly addressed in any estimates that database, like things to do with whole-brain emulation or brain-computer interfaces, but these are arguably covered by other estimates. (I also don’t have a strong view on how important WBE or BCI scenarios are.)