The prior is that dangerous AI will not happen in this decade. I have read a lot of arguments here for years, and I am not convinced that there is a good chance that the null hypothesis is wrong.
GPT4 can be said to be an AGI already. But it’s weak, it’s slow, it’s expensive, it has little agency, and it has already used up high-quality data and tricks such as ensembling. 4 years later, I expect to see GPT5.5 whose gap with GPT4 will be about the gap between GPT4 and GPT3.5. I absolutely do not expect the context window problem to get solved in this timeframe or even this decade. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03172)
The prior is that dangerous AI will not happen in this decade. I have read a lot of arguments here for years, and I am not convinced that there is a good chance that the null hypothesis is wrong.
GPT4 can be said to be an AGI already. But it’s weak, it’s slow, it’s expensive, it has little agency, and it has already used up high-quality data and tricks such as ensembling. 4 years later, I expect to see GPT5.5 whose gap with GPT4 will be about the gap between GPT4 and GPT3.5. I absolutely do not expect the context window problem to get solved in this timeframe or even this decade. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03172)