“You shouldn’t find yourself distinguishing the winning choice from the reasonable choice.”
I disagree. Let’s say there’s box A with $1000 dollars in it, and box B with $10,000 in it 1% of the time, and you can only pick one. If i pick A and my friend picks B, and they get the $10,000, they might say to me that I should wish I was like them. But I’ll defend my choice as reasonable, even though it wasn’t the winning choice that time.
“You shouldn’t find yourself distinguishing the [timelessly] winning choice [(as calculated from expected utility over infinite attempts)] from the reasonable choice.”
In your example, your friend picked the choice that won once. It was luck, and he’s happy, and all is well for him. However, the expected value of box B was $100, which does not win over $1000. Arguably, the gambling in itself may have nonzero utility value, and the certainty of obtaining $1000 may also have nonzero utility value, but that seems irrelevant in your example from the way it was formulated.
TL;DR: It seems like you’re disagreeing more on the formulation or wording than the actual principle.
“You shouldn’t find yourself distinguishing the winning choice from the reasonable choice.”
I disagree. Let’s say there’s box A with $1000 dollars in it, and box B with $10,000 in it 1% of the time, and you can only pick one. If i pick A and my friend picks B, and they get the $10,000, they might say to me that I should wish I was like them. But I’ll defend my choice as reasonable, even though it wasn’t the winning choice that time.
I believe it should be read as:
In your example, your friend picked the choice that won once. It was luck, and he’s happy, and all is well for him. However, the expected value of box B was $100, which does not win over $1000. Arguably, the gambling in itself may have nonzero utility value, and the certainty of obtaining $1000 may also have nonzero utility value, but that seems irrelevant in your example from the way it was formulated.
TL;DR: It seems like you’re disagreeing more on the formulation or wording than the actual principle.