It seems to me that no rationalist should accept the ‘givens’ in this scenario without a lot of evidence.
So what am I left with. Some being who hands out boxes, and 100 examples of people who open 1 box and get $1M or open both boxes and get $1k. I am unwilling to accept on faith a super-intelligent alien, so I will make the simplifying assumption that the being is in fact Penn & Teller. In which case, the question simplifies to “Am I willing to bet at 1000:1 odds that Penn & Teller aren’t able to make a box which vanishes $1M if I choose both boxes.” To which I respond, no.
No reversal causality required. No superintelligent prediction required. I simply know that I can’t beat Penn & Teller at their own game 999 times out of 1000.
It seems to me that no rationalist should accept the ‘givens’ in this scenario without a lot of evidence.
So what am I left with. Some being who hands out boxes, and 100 examples of people who open 1 box and get $1M or open both boxes and get $1k. I am unwilling to accept on faith a super-intelligent alien, so I will make the simplifying assumption that the being is in fact Penn & Teller. In which case, the question simplifies to “Am I willing to bet at 1000:1 odds that Penn & Teller aren’t able to make a box which vanishes $1M if I choose both boxes.” To which I respond, no.
No reversal causality required. No superintelligent prediction required. I simply know that I can’t beat Penn & Teller at their own game 999 times out of 1000.