Really fascinating stuff! I have a (possibly answered) question about how using expert updates on other expert prediction might be valuable.
You discuss the negative impacts of allowing experts to aggregate themselves, or viewing one another’s forecasts before initially submitting their own. Might there be value in allowing experts to submit multiple times, each time seeing the submitted predictions of a previous round? The final aggregation scheme would be able to not only assign a credence to each expert, but also gain a proxy for what credence the experts give to one another. In a more practical scenario where experts will talk if not collude, this might give better insight into how expert predictions are being created.
Thanks for taking the time to distill this work into a more approachable format—it certainly made the thesis more manageable!
Yeah, there’s definitely value in experts being allowed to submit multiple times, allowing them to update on other experts’ submissions. This is basically the frame taken in Chapter 8, where Alice and Bob update their estimate based on the other’s estimate at each step. This is generally the way prediction markets work, and I think it’s an understudied perspective (perhaps because it’s more difficult to reason about than if you assume that each expert’s estimate is static, i.e. does not depend on other experts’ estimates).
Really fascinating stuff! I have a (possibly answered) question about how using expert updates on other expert prediction might be valuable.
You discuss the negative impacts of allowing experts to aggregate themselves, or viewing one another’s forecasts before initially submitting their own. Might there be value in allowing experts to submit multiple times, each time seeing the submitted predictions of a previous round? The final aggregation scheme would be able to not only assign a credence to each expert, but also gain a proxy for what credence the experts give to one another. In a more practical scenario where experts will talk if not collude, this might give better insight into how expert predictions are being created.
Thanks for taking the time to distill this work into a more approachable format—it certainly made the thesis more manageable!
Yeah, there’s definitely value in experts being allowed to submit multiple times, allowing them to update on other experts’ submissions. This is basically the frame taken in Chapter 8, where Alice and Bob update their estimate based on the other’s estimate at each step. This is generally the way prediction markets work, and I think it’s an understudied perspective (perhaps because it’s more difficult to reason about than if you assume that each expert’s estimate is static, i.e. does not depend on other experts’ estimates).