Until new information comes out which clarifies the infectivity and severity of Omicron, especially against the vaccinated, I’m potentially more worried about outsized and concerning responses to the new variant than I am about Omicron itself. To be clear, this isn’t diminishing the potential bad results of Omicron—but in terms of actual infectivity and severity, I don’t expect it to be a lot worse than Delta. Vaccine resistance is more concerning, especially considering original antigenic sin.
That being said, my school (and California) has been requiring masking throughout the pandemic, and we closed schools for more than a year. I’m deeply concerned about the potential mental health effects of going back to virtual school, both on myself and people I care about. The current masking requirements for (even 80+ percent vaccinated) schools being more stringent than the masking requirements for basically anything else, including bars, is absolutely ridiculous to me. This is only going to get worse, as parents in my district will do absolutely anything to make sure their whims are satisfied. I’m fairly confident that if Omicron looks to be a general threat, regardless of its actual danger to students, they will close en masse.
I think your model is largely accurate, and the only one I would disagree with is the last—where I’d put the chances, considering vaccines. Paxlovid. and Fluvoxamine, as <10%. I’d add one final chance at ~40% that schools from kindergarten to colleges widely close for >3 months.
I worry sometimes about burnout effects. What if we do all that and Omikron isn’t so bad, but two variants further down the road is ‘the one’ and no one is willing to do anything about it?
Until new information comes out which clarifies the infectivity and severity of Omicron, especially against the vaccinated, I’m potentially more worried about outsized and concerning responses to the new variant than I am about Omicron itself. To be clear, this isn’t diminishing the potential bad results of Omicron—but in terms of actual infectivity and severity, I don’t expect it to be a lot worse than Delta. Vaccine resistance is more concerning, especially considering original antigenic sin.
That being said, my school (and California) has been requiring masking throughout the pandemic, and we closed schools for more than a year. I’m deeply concerned about the potential mental health effects of going back to virtual school, both on myself and people I care about. The current masking requirements for (even 80+ percent vaccinated) schools being more stringent than the masking requirements for basically anything else, including bars, is absolutely ridiculous to me. This is only going to get worse, as parents in my district will do absolutely anything to make sure their whims are satisfied. I’m fairly confident that if Omicron looks to be a general threat, regardless of its actual danger to students, they will close en masse.
I think your model is largely accurate, and the only one I would disagree with is the last—where I’d put the chances, considering vaccines. Paxlovid. and Fluvoxamine, as <10%. I’d add one final chance at ~40% that schools from kindergarten to colleges widely close for >3 months.
I worry sometimes about burnout effects. What if we do all that and Omikron isn’t so bad, but two variants further down the road is ‘the one’ and no one is willing to do anything about it?
Good point—“boy who cried wolf” syndrome