Seems like defection towards the participants overall, compared to no nukes fired:
in the no nukes scenario, the 10 generals get +100 each, the two Petrovs get +1000(?) each, and citizens get nothing (+3000 karma in total);
in the coin flip scenario, the 10 generals get +350 in expectation each, the two Petrovs get +200..1000(?) each (depending on when in the game the button is pressed), and the 300 citizens get −12.5 in expectation each (-50..+750 karma in total).
Seems like defection towards the participants overall, compared to no nukes fired:
in the no nukes scenario, the 10 generals get +100 each, the two Petrovs get +1000(?) each, and citizens get nothing (+3000 karma in total);
in the coin flip scenario, the 10 generals get +350 in expectation each, the two Petrovs get +200..1000(?) each (depending on when in the game the button is pressed), and the 300 citizens get −12.5 in expectation each (-50..+750 karma in total).
Yes, we’re working on aligning incentives upthread, but for some silly reason the admins don’t want us starting a reign of terror.