If it were a case like you describe (two competing products in a store), I would have to guess, and thus would have to try to think of some “upstream” questions and guess those, too. Not impossible, but unlikely to unearth worthwhile information. For questions as remote as P(aliens), I don’t see a reason to bother.
Have you seen David Friedman’s discussion of rational voter ignorance in The Machinery of Freedom?
If it were a case like you describe (two competing products in a store), I would have to guess, and thus would have to try to think of some “upstream” questions and guess those, too. Not impossible, but unlikely to unearth worthwhile information. For questions as remote as P(aliens), I don’t see a reason to bother.
Have you seen David Friedman’s discussion of rational voter ignorance in The Machinery of Freedom?