So to summarise. On LW the story is often told as follows: CDTers don’t care about winning (at least not in any natural sense) and they avoid the problems raised by NP by saying the scenario is unfair. This makes the CDTer sound not just wrong but also so foolish it’s hard to understand why the CDTer exists.
But expanded to show what the CDT actually means, this becomes: CDTers agree that winning is what matters to rationality but because they’re interested in rational decisions they are interested in what winning can be attributed to decisions. Specifically, they say that winning can be attributed to a decision if it was caused by that decision. In response to NP, the CDTer notes that the agent’s overall winning is not a good guide to the winning decision as in this case, the agent’s winning it also determined by factors other than their decisions (that is, the winning cannot be attributed to the agent’s decision). Further, because the agent’s winnings correlate with their decisions, even though it can’t be attributed to their decisions, the case can be particularly misleading when trying to determine the winning decisions.
Now this second view may be both false and may be playing the wrong game but it at least gives the CDTer a fair hearing in a way that the first view doesn’t.
So to summarise. On LW the story is often told as follows: CDTers don’t care about winning (at least not in any natural sense) and they avoid the problems raised by NP by saying the scenario is unfair. This makes the CDTer sound not just wrong but also so foolish it’s hard to understand why the CDTer exists.
But expanded to show what the CDT actually means, this becomes: CDTers agree that winning is what matters to rationality but because they’re interested in rational decisions they are interested in what winning can be attributed to decisions. Specifically, they say that winning can be attributed to a decision if it was caused by that decision. In response to NP, the CDTer notes that the agent’s overall winning is not a good guide to the winning decision as in this case, the agent’s winning it also determined by factors other than their decisions (that is, the winning cannot be attributed to the agent’s decision). Further, because the agent’s winnings correlate with their decisions, even though it can’t be attributed to their decisions, the case can be particularly misleading when trying to determine the winning decisions.
Now this second view may be both false and may be playing the wrong game but it at least gives the CDTer a fair hearing in a way that the first view doesn’t.