Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other’s satisfaction with it?
This is an expected value problem. Decide how much a unit of your time is worth, how much time you are willing to invest and then (the hard part) estimate your likelihood for success.
So, if you value your time at $10/hr, are willing to invest 10 hours and estimate you will win the $155 X% of the time then we get this equation:
P(winning)$amount won—P(losing)$amount not won = initial investment
x$155 - (1-x)$0 = $10/hr * 10 hours
solve for x
x = 64.5%, in other words, to “break even” you need to be sure that if you invest 10 hours of your time in this project that you will win it at least 64.5% of the time.
A race may not be the best way to run this for you, since I suspect that you value your time a high rate relative to the potential payoff. But someone who values their time less (or is more productive than you per unit time) may think a race is a wonderful idea.
Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other’s satisfaction with it?
Why do I care… what I care? Seriously?
But I do agree with your expected utility calculations. The problem is, I can’t motivate myself to write under conditions of uncertainty like that. I understand that shouldn’t matter, especially since I consider such a project worthwhile even in the absence of $155, but it does.
Getting it done to other’s satisfaction and getting it done to your own are not mutually exclusive. You can work quickly to win the prize and then go back and expand.
Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other’s satisfaction with it?
This is an expected value problem. Decide how much a unit of your time is worth, how much time you are willing to invest and then (the hard part) estimate your likelihood for success.
So, if you value your time at $10/hr, are willing to invest 10 hours and estimate you will win the $155 X% of the time then we get this equation:
P(winning)$amount won—P(losing)$amount not won = initial investment
x$155 - (1-x)$0 = $10/hr * 10 hours
solve for x
x = 64.5%, in other words, to “break even” you need to be sure that if you invest 10 hours of your time in this project that you will win it at least 64.5% of the time.
A race may not be the best way to run this for you, since I suspect that you value your time a high rate relative to the potential payoff. But someone who values their time less (or is more productive than you per unit time) may think a race is a wonderful idea.
Why do I care… what I care? Seriously?
But I do agree with your expected utility calculations. The problem is, I can’t motivate myself to write under conditions of uncertainty like that. I understand that shouldn’t matter, especially since I consider such a project worthwhile even in the absence of $155, but it does.
Getting it done to other’s satisfaction and getting it done to your own are not mutually exclusive. You can work quickly to win the prize and then go back and expand.
No, I can’t. That’s my problem, as I’ve been explaining in my comments.
Perhaps you two should collaborate and split the prize in some way.
I think it’s a bit late for that. But I’ve PMed Duke.