Thanks. I edited again to be more precise. Maybe I’m closer to the median than I thought.
(edit: unimportant clarification. I just realized “you all” may have made it sound like I thought every single person on the Lightcone team was higher than my p(doom). I meant it to be more like a generic y’all to represent the group, not a claim about the minimum p(doom) of the team)
Lightcone is also heterogeneous, but I think it’s accurate that the median view at Lightcone is >50% on misaligned takeover
Thanks. I edited again to be more precise. Maybe I’m closer to the median than I thought.
(edit: unimportant clarification. I just realized “you all” may have made it sound like I thought every single person on the Lightcone team was higher than my p(doom). I meant it to be more like a generic y’all to represent the group, not a claim about the minimum p(doom) of the team)
My impression matches your initial one, to be clear. Like my point estimate of the median is like 85%, my confidence only extends to >50%