Yeah I meant more on p(doom)/alignment difficulty than timelines, I’m not sure what your guys’ timelines are. I’m roughly in the 35-55% ballpark for a misaligned takeover, and my impression is that you all are closer to but not necessarily all the way at the >90% Eliezer view. If that’s also wrong I’ll edit to correct.
edit: oh maybe my wording of “farther” in the original comment was specifically confusing and made it sound like I was talking about timelines. I will edit to clarify.
Thanks. I edited again to be more precise. Maybe I’m closer to the median than I thought.
(edit: unimportant clarification. I just realized “you all” may have made it sound like I thought every single person on the Lightcone team was higher than my p(doom). I meant it to be more like a generic y’all to represent the group, not a claim about the minimum p(doom) of the team)
Ah, yep, I am definitely more doomy than that. I tend to be around 85%-90% these days. I did indeed interpret you to be talking about timelines due to the “farther”.
Yeah I meant more on p(doom)/alignment difficulty than timelines, I’m not sure what your guys’ timelines are. I’m roughly in the 35-55% ballpark for a misaligned takeover, and my impression is that you all are closer to but not necessarily all the way at the >90% Eliezer view. If that’s also wrong I’ll edit to correct.
edit: oh maybe my wording of “farther” in the original comment was specifically confusing and made it sound like I was talking about timelines. I will edit to clarify.
Lightcone is also heterogeneous, but I think it’s accurate that the median view at Lightcone is >50% on misaligned takeover
Thanks. I edited again to be more precise. Maybe I’m closer to the median than I thought.
(edit: unimportant clarification. I just realized “you all” may have made it sound like I thought every single person on the Lightcone team was higher than my p(doom). I meant it to be more like a generic y’all to represent the group, not a claim about the minimum p(doom) of the team)
My impression matches your initial one, to be clear. Like my point estimate of the median is like 85%, my confidence only extends to >50%
Ah, yep, I am definitely more doomy than that. I tend to be around 85%-90% these days. I did indeed interpret you to be talking about timelines due to the “farther”.