31 of them found a positive association between economic recession and increased suicide rates.
2 studies reported a negative association,
2 articles failed to find any association
3 studies were inconclusive.
Unfortunately they didn’t share the effect size for most of these studies. Looking at other sources (notes here), I found anywhere from a 4% increase (across Europe and the Americas during the 2008 recession) to 60% (among men in Russia during the 1991 crisis). Studies typically found a much larger effect in men than women, sometimes finding no change in the female suicide rate at all. Different studies found different effects on different age groups; these felt too subdivided to me and I ignored them. Unsurprisingly, unemployment was positive correlated with suicide.
That 60% increase in Russia corresponded to an additional 30 deaths per 100,000 people per year, at a time when the overall death rate was 1300 deaths per 100,000 people. That 4% Europe/Americas increase represents 5000 deaths total, across three continents.
For posterity: I’d predicted a rise but not the amount or demographics.
If I lose my job, but most of the other men in my workplace and in my social environment keep theirs, that tends to have a much worse effect on my self-esteem than if all the men in my workplace lose their job because the government closed the workplace by fiat or if half of the men in my social environment lose their jobs because of a lockdown, so I would expect this recession to cause fewer suicides in the US than a typical US recession did since a persistent sense of not measuring up to the other men in my social environment is according to my understanding a major cause of suicide.
The other major cause of suicide according to my understanding is a breakdown in society: in short people need to feel like they belong—to know where they belong in the social structure, which doesn’t happen during rapid social change (whether the change is “positive” or “negative” in the long term). That explains the huge increase in suicide (and addictive behavior) in Russia in 1991. Although the lockdowns in response to the virus are causing disruptions, men know the disruptions will end and that when they do, most social arrangement will go back to the way it they were—in sharp contrast to the situation in Russia in 1991. Consequently I wouldn’t expect the lockdowns to disrupt society enough to cause a large increase in suicides.
Clarification: I think most men know or will soon enough find out, e.g., through the media that the lockdowns won’t persist past the end of next winter (Northern Hemisphere) at the latest.
Suicide rates rise, primarily in unemployed men
I linked to this study above, but for completeness:
A review found that out of 38 studies:
31 of them found a positive association between economic recession and increased suicide rates.
2 studies reported a negative association,
2 articles failed to find any association
3 studies were inconclusive.
Unfortunately they didn’t share the effect size for most of these studies. Looking at other sources (notes here), I found anywhere from a 4% increase (across Europe and the Americas during the 2008 recession) to 60% (among men in Russia during the 1991 crisis). Studies typically found a much larger effect in men than women, sometimes finding no change in the female suicide rate at all. Different studies found different effects on different age groups; these felt too subdivided to me and I ignored them. Unsurprisingly, unemployment was positive correlated with suicide.
That 60% increase in Russia corresponded to an additional 30 deaths per 100,000 people per year, at a time when the overall death rate was 1300 deaths per 100,000 people. That 4% Europe/Americas increase represents 5000 deaths total, across three continents.
For posterity: I’d predicted a rise but not the amount or demographics.
If I lose my job, but most of the other men in my workplace and in my social environment keep theirs, that tends to have a much worse effect on my self-esteem than if all the men in my workplace lose their job because the government closed the workplace by fiat or if half of the men in my social environment lose their jobs because of a lockdown, so I would expect this recession to cause fewer suicides in the US than a typical US recession did since a persistent sense of not measuring up to the other men in my social environment is according to my understanding a major cause of suicide.
The other major cause of suicide according to my understanding is a breakdown in society: in short people need to feel like they belong—to know where they belong in the social structure, which doesn’t happen during rapid social change (whether the change is “positive” or “negative” in the long term). That explains the huge increase in suicide (and addictive behavior) in Russia in 1991. Although the lockdowns in response to the virus are causing disruptions, men know the disruptions will end and that when they do, most social arrangement will go back to the way it they were—in sharp contrast to the situation in Russia in 1991. Consequently I wouldn’t expect the lockdowns to disrupt society enough to cause a large increase in suicides.
Clarification: I think most men know or will soon enough find out, e.g., through the media that the lockdowns won’t persist past the end of next winter (Northern Hemisphere) at the latest.