Zabini stuns himself in the name of Sunshine to create a tie. And here’s why:
1) The rest of the school is very partisan about their favorite army, so it’s not likely that many are betting on a tie. Zabini (through a proxy or otherwise) put all of his chips on “tie.” So he will return to Hell a much richer Prince of Darkness.
1a) “Aftermath” scene: Hogsmeade. Zabini meets his broker. Hogwarts is basically a closed economy, and Zabini has now walked off with the lion’s share of the student body’s disposable income. He plunks his Bag of Holding on the table. “Take this and convert it to Muggle money. Then go buy unmarked silver bullion...”
2) The three Generals are tied for Quirrell points. Given what we’ve seen of him in this chapter, Zabini is probably in fourth place, and not too far behind. How many Quirrell points will he get for getting all three generals to play according to his plan? We see Harry and Hermione accepting, and per the Prisoner’s Dilemma thing, Harry and Draco had to synchronize their moves (“cooperate”) to have a chance against Hermione. This would mean that Draco is also more or less following Zabini’s plan. Zabini was able to steer the battle to his personal chosen outcome, so he (as an individual) wins the battle. The betrayal rules+scoring are set up to favor individual objectives rather than army loyalty/collective goals/unity. Zabini has realized this, and acted accordingly.
3) After collecting Quirrell’s wish from his come-from-behind victory (which provides a “practical” demonstration of the 2-4-6 Test, since no one, Generals included, expected Zabini to have his own victory conditions), Zabini goes to Dumbledore’s office. “Well done, Blaise!” Dumbledore says. “I suppose you’re here for your wish...” That is, Dumbledore has offered Zabini a wish if he could steer the battle to a tie, since that would stop a Hogwarts equivalent of a football (soccer) riot, which would be likely if one of the armies won.
4) At the Christmas feast, Dumbledore rises to announce that the three armies are being merged into a Hogwarts Army, and starting at the end of January, the HA will compete in three-way battles with Beauxbatons and Durmstrang. Per the experiment mentioned earlier with the “Eagles” and “Rattlers,” the Hogwarts students are united against external foes. He and Quirrell allowed the Headmasters of the other schools to watch the battles using Quirrell screens, and their staffs liked the idea. The mock battles use more magical skills and incorporate more students than Quidditch, and are thus a better encouragement to learning. New rules could be applied to future battles. “You may use any magic item you can make (under teacher or senior-student supervision) in your battles, providing it’s not dangerous.” “You can use any Potion you can make,” etc.
Regarding the note of confusion Harry feels in Chapter 3: the Killing Curse “strikes directly at the soul”, but in Voldemort’s case it burned his body. More likely he never cast it at Harry Potter, and the burnt hulk they found wasn’t him. He learned about the prophecy and, being smart, changed his plans rather than risk fulfilling it.
And the Source of Magic is a UFAI that optimizes the world into stories.
I hope all my predictions turn out wrong. What I want most from this story is to go on being surprised.
Here’s what I think will happen:
Zabini stuns himself in the name of Sunshine to create a tie. And here’s why:
1) The rest of the school is very partisan about their favorite army, so it’s not likely that many are betting on a tie. Zabini (through a proxy or otherwise) put all of his chips on “tie.” So he will return to Hell a much richer Prince of Darkness.
1a) “Aftermath” scene: Hogsmeade. Zabini meets his broker. Hogwarts is basically a closed economy, and Zabini has now walked off with the lion’s share of the student body’s disposable income. He plunks his Bag of Holding on the table. “Take this and convert it to Muggle money. Then go buy unmarked silver bullion...”
2) The three Generals are tied for Quirrell points. Given what we’ve seen of him in this chapter, Zabini is probably in fourth place, and not too far behind. How many Quirrell points will he get for getting all three generals to play according to his plan? We see Harry and Hermione accepting, and per the Prisoner’s Dilemma thing, Harry and Draco had to synchronize their moves (“cooperate”) to have a chance against Hermione. This would mean that Draco is also more or less following Zabini’s plan. Zabini was able to steer the battle to his personal chosen outcome, so he (as an individual) wins the battle. The betrayal rules+scoring are set up to favor individual objectives rather than army loyalty/collective goals/unity. Zabini has realized this, and acted accordingly.
3) After collecting Quirrell’s wish from his come-from-behind victory (which provides a “practical” demonstration of the 2-4-6 Test, since no one, Generals included, expected Zabini to have his own victory conditions), Zabini goes to Dumbledore’s office. “Well done, Blaise!” Dumbledore says. “I suppose you’re here for your wish...” That is, Dumbledore has offered Zabini a wish if he could steer the battle to a tie, since that would stop a Hogwarts equivalent of a football (soccer) riot, which would be likely if one of the armies won.
4) At the Christmas feast, Dumbledore rises to announce that the three armies are being merged into a Hogwarts Army, and starting at the end of January, the HA will compete in three-way battles with Beauxbatons and Durmstrang. Per the experiment mentioned earlier with the “Eagles” and “Rattlers,” the Hogwarts students are united against external foes. He and Quirrell allowed the Headmasters of the other schools to watch the battles using Quirrell screens, and their staffs liked the idea. The mock battles use more magical skills and incorporate more students than Quidditch, and are thus a better encouragement to learning. New rules could be applied to future battles. “You may use any magic item you can make (under teacher or senior-student supervision) in your battles, providing it’s not dangerous.” “You can use any Potion you can make,” etc.
Predictions?
Regarding the note of confusion Harry feels in Chapter 3: the Killing Curse “strikes directly at the soul”, but in Voldemort’s case it burned his body. More likely he never cast it at Harry Potter, and the burnt hulk they found wasn’t him. He learned about the prophecy and, being smart, changed his plans rather than risk fulfilling it.
And the Source of Magic is a UFAI that optimizes the world into stories.
I hope all my predictions turn out wrong. What I want most from this story is to go on being surprised.