From the vague notions I have of embryo selection by reading posts here, I expect that you could improve the parrot by an important by parrot standards amount, but not get to genius parrot without either: long timeframes, new techniques, major expense.
Initially, the genetic variations you would be selecting would mostly have independent effects, so you would not be slowed down by compromises with side effects. But I expect this linear regime to break down at some point. I have three scenarios in mind:
The linear regime: each genomic variation contributes independently to metrics you care about, and in the same way in each generation of parrots.
The linearized regime: like (1), but the way the variations contribute changes every few generations as you select your parrots.
The nonlinear regime: at some point you can’t quickly pareto-improve the parrots with embryo selection based on looking at correlations between variations and metrics. You have exhausted your “linear modifications budget”.
In this framing, I consider (2) more probable, because I think evolution needs at least (2) to work, and (1) would make evolution too fast. But I’m not confident.
What happens to your plan in each scenario:
You can use the genomic studies done on existing parrots to select embryos all the way up to your genius parrot race at a steady pace.
You need to create a very large population of generation-locked embryo-selected parrots every once in a while and redo the genomic studies, so it’s more expensive than (1) without changing time frames.
You will get stuck at somewhat more intelligent parrots, and then need major scientific breakthroughs.
I wonder how cross-species-compatible animal genes are in general. Main example I’ve heard of is that fluorescence genes from bacteria can be pretty much inserted anywhere and just work [citation needed]. You probably couldn’t give a parrot elephant ears but maybe you could do more basic tweaks like lifespan or size changes?
If you can cross-copy-paste useful stuff easily then scenario 1 is significantly upgraded
From the vague notions I have of embryo selection by reading posts here, I expect that you could improve the parrot by an important by parrot standards amount, but not get to genius parrot without either: long timeframes, new techniques, major expense.
Initially, the genetic variations you would be selecting would mostly have independent effects, so you would not be slowed down by compromises with side effects. But I expect this linear regime to break down at some point. I have three scenarios in mind:
The linear regime: each genomic variation contributes independently to metrics you care about, and in the same way in each generation of parrots.
The linearized regime: like (1), but the way the variations contribute changes every few generations as you select your parrots.
The nonlinear regime: at some point you can’t quickly pareto-improve the parrots with embryo selection based on looking at correlations between variations and metrics. You have exhausted your “linear modifications budget”.
In this framing, I consider (2) more probable, because I think evolution needs at least (2) to work, and (1) would make evolution too fast. But I’m not confident.
What happens to your plan in each scenario:
You can use the genomic studies done on existing parrots to select embryos all the way up to your genius parrot race at a steady pace.
You need to create a very large population of generation-locked embryo-selected parrots every once in a while and redo the genomic studies, so it’s more expensive than (1) without changing time frames.
You will get stuck at somewhat more intelligent parrots, and then need major scientific breakthroughs.
I wonder how cross-species-compatible animal genes are in general. Main example I’ve heard of is that fluorescence genes from bacteria can be pretty much inserted anywhere and just work [citation needed]. You probably couldn’t give a parrot elephant ears but maybe you could do more basic tweaks like lifespan or size changes?
If you can cross-copy-paste useful stuff easily then scenario 1 is significantly upgraded