To more directly address your initial question: to my mind, Zvi’s analysis isn’t obviously wrong, but it’s pretty far to the optimistic end of what I see as the reasonable range.
My best model suggests that for me (55 but very healthy), 1,000 µCoV of risk has an expected life cost of about 15 minutes.
Based on that, my approach to risk is very situational. Is eating in a restaurant worth 75 minutes of lying in bed with flu wishing I was dead (based on today’s numbers)? No, it isn’t. Is going to a friend’s wedding worth that? Yes, it probably is.
Is eating in a restaurant worth 75 minutes of lying in bed with flu wishing I was dead
I am amused to note that some people do think that going out and drinking to excess with friends is worth 75 minutes of lying in bed with a hangover wishing they were dead.
Thanks! I’m curious what you think of his argument that if debilitating long COVID were common, that would be obvious anecdotally and in aggregate statistics:
Every week someone comes in and says things like 30% chance of brain fog, but think about that for a second. Half the country has had Covid. So this is saying 15% or more of the population is suffering from crippling brain fog? Wouldn’t we know? I mean come on.
I’m overdue for making another pass through the latest data, so my opinions on this are weakly held. But briefly: my current thinking is that many people (including Zvi and me) have made the mistake of conflating a number of different phenomena into the single category of “long covid”. I believe Zvi is correct that if a large number of people were suffering long-term debilitating impact, we’d know it.
I suspect that after I plow through the data again, I’ll update significantly in the direction of believing that:
“Long covid” is a debilitating phenomenon that affects a very small number of people for a long time.
“Post-acute covid” is significantly impactful and impacts a non-trivial number of people moderately for weeks or maybe a few months.
Anecdata: I don’t know anyone who’s been profoundly impacted by covid for a very long time. I know multiple people who’ve suffered significant impairment for weeks / months.
The impact of long covid is (small incidence #) x (large impact #), and the impact of post-acute covid is (medium incidence #) x (medium impact #). I think for most people, the total expected impact of getting covid will be somewhere between a day and a few weeks of useful live lost, with large error bars and much of the impact being in low-likelihood events.
To more directly address your initial question: to my mind, Zvi’s analysis isn’t obviously wrong, but it’s pretty far to the optimistic end of what I see as the reasonable range.
My best model suggests that for me (55 but very healthy), 1,000 µCoV of risk has an expected life cost of about 15 minutes.
Based on that, my approach to risk is very situational. Is eating in a restaurant worth 75 minutes of lying in bed with flu wishing I was dead (based on today’s numbers)? No, it isn’t. Is going to a friend’s wedding worth that? Yes, it probably is.
I am amused to note that some people do think that going out and drinking to excess with friends is worth 75 minutes of lying in bed with a hangover wishing they were dead.
Thanks! I’m curious what you think of his argument that if debilitating long COVID were common, that would be obvious anecdotally and in aggregate statistics:
I’m overdue for making another pass through the latest data, so my opinions on this are weakly held. But briefly: my current thinking is that many people (including Zvi and me) have made the mistake of conflating a number of different phenomena into the single category of “long covid”. I believe Zvi is correct that if a large number of people were suffering long-term debilitating impact, we’d know it.
I suspect that after I plow through the data again, I’ll update significantly in the direction of believing that:
“Long covid” is a debilitating phenomenon that affects a very small number of people for a long time.
“Post-acute covid” is significantly impactful and impacts a non-trivial number of people moderately for weeks or maybe a few months.
Anecdata: I don’t know anyone who’s been profoundly impacted by covid for a very long time. I know multiple people who’ve suffered significant impairment for weeks / months.
The impact of long covid is (small incidence #) x (large impact #), and the impact of post-acute covid is (medium incidence #) x (medium impact #). I think for most people, the total expected impact of getting covid will be somewhere between a day and a few weeks of useful live lost, with large error bars and much of the impact being in low-likelihood events.