It seems like something has to be going wrong if the model output has higher odds that TAI is already here (~12%) than TAI being developed between now and 2027 (~11%)? Relatedly, I’m confused by the disclaimer that “we are not updating on the fact that TAI has obviously not yet arrived”—shouldn’t that fact be baked into the distributions for each parameter (particularly the number of FLOPs to reach TAI)?
In the notebook, the number of FLOP to train TAI is deduced a priori. I basically just estimated distributions over the relevant parameters by asking what I’d expect from TAI, rather than taking into consideration whether those values would imply a final distribution that predicts TAI arrived in the past. It may be worth noting that that Bio Anchors also does this initially, but it performs an update by chopping off some probability from the distribution and then renormalizing. I didn’t do that yet because I don’t know how to best perform the update.
Personally, I don’t think a 12% chance that TAI already arrived is that bad, given that the model is deduced a priori. Others could reasonably disagree though.
It seems like something has to be going wrong if the model output has higher odds that TAI is already here (~12%) than TAI being developed between now and 2027 (~11%)? Relatedly, I’m confused by the disclaimer that “we are not updating on the fact that TAI has obviously not yet arrived”—shouldn’t that fact be baked into the distributions for each parameter (particularly the number of FLOPs to reach TAI)?
In the notebook, the number of FLOP to train TAI is deduced a priori. I basically just estimated distributions over the relevant parameters by asking what I’d expect from TAI, rather than taking into consideration whether those values would imply a final distribution that predicts TAI arrived in the past. It may be worth noting that that Bio Anchors also does this initially, but it performs an update by chopping off some probability from the distribution and then renormalizing. I didn’t do that yet because I don’t know how to best perform the update.
Personally, I don’t think a 12% chance that TAI already arrived is that bad, given that the model is deduced a priori. Others could reasonably disagree though.