To improve the review, an important addition would be to account for the degree to which different methods influence one another. E.g. Holden and Ajeya influence one another heavily through conversations. And as Metaculus and Samotsvety, they already incorporate the other models, most notably the bioanchors framework. Maybe you are already correcting for this in the weighted average?
Also, note that e.g., Ajeya uses her own judgment to set the weights for the different models within the bioanchors framework.
Overall, I think right now there is a severe echo chamber effect within most of the forecasts that lets me weigh full outside views, such as the semi-informative priors much higher
To improve the review, an important addition would be to account for the degree to which different methods influence one another.
E.g. Holden and Ajeya influence one another heavily through conversations. And as Metaculus and Samotsvety, they already incorporate the other models, most notably the bioanchors framework. Maybe you are already correcting for this in the weighted average?
Also, note that e.g., Ajeya uses her own judgment to set the weights for the different models within the bioanchors framework.
Overall, I think right now there is a severe echo chamber effect within most of the forecasts that lets me weigh full outside views, such as the semi-informative priors much higher