Perhaps their contribution is in influencing the non experts? It is very likely that the non experts base their estimates on whatever predictions respected experts have made.
Seems pretty unlikely—because you’d then expect the non-experts to have the same predicted dates as the experts, but not the same distribution of time to AI.
Also the examples I saw were mainly of non-experts saying: AI will happen around here because well, I say so. (sometimes spiced with Moore’s law).
Perhaps their contribution is in influencing the non experts? It is very likely that the non experts base their estimates on whatever predictions respected experts have made.
Seems pretty unlikely—because you’d then expect the non-experts to have the same predicted dates as the experts, but not the same distribution of time to AI.
Also the examples I saw were mainly of non-experts saying: AI will happen around here because well, I say so. (sometimes spiced with Moore’s law).