The operationalisation which feels most natural to me is something like:
Make a list of cognitively difficult jobs (lawyer, doctor, speechwriter, CEO, engineer, scientist, accountant, trader, consultant, venture capitalist, etc...)
A job is automatable when there exists a publicly accessible AI service which allows an equally skilled person to do just as well in less than 25% of the time that it used to take a specialist, OR which allows someone with little skill or training to do the job in about the same time that it used to take a specialist.
I claim that over 75% of the jobs on this list will be automatable within 75% of the time until a single superhuman AGI is developed.
(Note that there are three free parameters in this definition, which I’ve set to arbitrary numbers that seem intuitively reasonable).
Why are you measuring it in proportion of time-until-agent-AGI and not years? If it takes 2 years from comprehensive services to agent, and most jobs are automatable within 1.5 years, that seems a lot less striking and important than the claim pre-operationalisation.
The 75% figure is from now until single agent AGI. I measure it proportionately because otherwise it says more about timeline estimates than about CAIS.
The operationalisation which feels most natural to me is something like:
Make a list of cognitively difficult jobs (lawyer, doctor, speechwriter, CEO, engineer, scientist, accountant, trader, consultant, venture capitalist, etc...)
A job is automatable when there exists a publicly accessible AI service which allows an equally skilled person to do just as well in less than 25% of the time that it used to take a specialist, OR which allows someone with little skill or training to do the job in about the same time that it used to take a specialist.
I claim that over 75% of the jobs on this list will be automatable within 75% of the time until a single superhuman AGI is developed.
(Note that there are three free parameters in this definition, which I’ve set to arbitrary numbers that seem intuitively reasonable).
Why are you measuring it in proportion of time-until-agent-AGI and not years? If it takes 2 years from comprehensive services to agent, and most jobs are automatable within 1.5 years, that seems a lot less striking and important than the claim pre-operationalisation.
The 75% figure is from now until single agent AGI. I measure it proportionately because otherwise it says more about timeline estimates than about CAIS.