Ok, yeah, I don’t think the chances are much smaller than one in a million. But I do think the chances are not increased much by cryonics. Here, let me explain my reasoning.
I assume that eventually, humanity will fall into a topia (Tammy’s definition) or go extinct. Given that it does not go extinct, it will spend a very long amount of subjective time, possibly infinite, in said topia. In the event that this is some sort of brilliant paradise of maximum molecular fun where I can make stuff for eternity, we can probably reconstruct a person solely based on little bits of information left behind (like how we can reconstruct Proto-Indo-European from the bits and influences it leaves on our modern languages), so I consider the slightly improved chances of revival negligible even when compared to the massive length of time (possibly infinite, which is why this is a Pascal’s mugging) I would be living in such a world.
(Besides, the infiniteness is balanced out by the slightly increased chances of experiencing maximally horrible agony like in WYS.)
There’s also a chance that we figure out how to revive frozen people before reaching a topia, but that seems kind of low of a chance (and even then, completely nullified by the maybe-infinity we might spend our time in)
I could have completely flawed logic in my head. I’m sorta new to all this “thinking about the long term future” stuff you guys really like doing. Please correct me because I’m probably wrong.
Well, there are different opinions on the possibility of reconstructing a person. Some people here would agree with you. I am afraid that there will not be enough evidence left to reconstruct the person, even if we had all their writings, and we usually don’t have even that.
Ok, yeah, I don’t think the chances are much smaller than one in a million. But I do think the chances are not increased much by cryonics. Here, let me explain my reasoning.
I assume that eventually, humanity will fall into a topia (Tammy’s definition) or go extinct. Given that it does not go extinct, it will spend a very long amount of subjective time, possibly infinite, in said topia. In the event that this is some sort of brilliant paradise of maximum molecular fun where I can make stuff for eternity, we can probably reconstruct a person solely based on little bits of information left behind (like how we can reconstruct Proto-Indo-European from the bits and influences it leaves on our modern languages), so I consider the slightly improved chances of revival negligible even when compared to the massive length of time (possibly infinite, which is why this is a Pascal’s mugging) I would be living in such a world.
(Besides, the infiniteness is balanced out by the slightly increased chances of experiencing maximally horrible agony like in WYS.)
There’s also a chance that we figure out how to revive frozen people before reaching a topia, but that seems kind of low of a chance (and even then, completely nullified by the maybe-infinity we might spend our time in)
I could have completely flawed logic in my head. I’m sorta new to all this “thinking about the long term future” stuff you guys really like doing. Please correct me because I’m probably wrong.
Well, there are different opinions on the possibility of reconstructing a person. Some people here would agree with you. I am afraid that there will not be enough evidence left to reconstruct the person, even if we had all their writings, and we usually don’t have even that.