Yes. I don’t know you so please don’t read this as an insult. But if Sam Altman and Tyler Cowen take an idea seriously don’t you have to as well. Remember that disagreement is disrespect so you saying that UFOs should not be taken seriously is your saying that you have a better reasoning process than either of those two men.
I don’t take it as an insult, I just think it’s a wrong line of reasoning. I’m a pretty smart guy myself, but I’m sure I’m wrong about things too! (Even though for any specific thing I believe, I of course think I’m probably right.)
If someone else is right about something and I’m wrong, I don’t want them to deferentially “take me seriously.” I want them to be right and show me why I’m wrong—though not to the extent of spamming my email inbox. Makes me want to go re-read Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons.
Normally this is a good approach, but a problem with the UFOs are aliens theory is that there is a massive amount of evidence (much undoubtedly crap) the most important of which is likely classified top secret so you have to put a lot of weight on what other people (especially those with direct access to those with top secret security clearances) say they believe.
The best photos of my house from space are also classified, yet I don’t live in total ignorance about what my house looks like from above.
If the classified photos of my house did show something surprising (maybe I’ve got some graffiti that I’ve never noticed), I would update my beliefs, but because I have pretty good evidence about the top of my house already, I don’t need to wait around for the best possible photos, and in fact I can give pretty good predictions of what those photos will look like.
Suppose my house is in some declassified Navy photos and there’s a bird over my roof. If someone claims that my roof has a picture of a bird on it, this is very bad evidence for my house actually having a picture of a bird on it, and very good evidence for this person having made a mistake.
Although every sentence here is technically correct, I still feel I should share a link to a nice video explaining how you get the navy observations without any aliens being involved.
Sam Altman seems to take UFOs seriously. See 17.14 of this talk.
Okay? Is your implied point that Sam Altman, or Tyler Cowen, is such an epistemic authority figure that I too should take UFOs seriously?
Yes. I don’t know you so please don’t read this as an insult. But if Sam Altman and Tyler Cowen take an idea seriously don’t you have to as well. Remember that disagreement is disrespect so you saying that UFOs should not be taken seriously is your saying that you have a better reasoning process than either of those two men.
I don’t take it as an insult, I just think it’s a wrong line of reasoning. I’m a pretty smart guy myself, but I’m sure I’m wrong about things too! (Even though for any specific thing I believe, I of course think I’m probably right.)
If someone else is right about something and I’m wrong, I don’t want them to deferentially “take me seriously.” I want them to be right and show me why I’m wrong—though not to the extent of spamming my email inbox. Makes me want to go re-read Guided By The Beauty Of Our Weapons.
Normally this is a good approach, but a problem with the UFOs are aliens theory is that there is a massive amount of evidence (much undoubtedly crap) the most important of which is likely classified top secret so you have to put a lot of weight on what other people (especially those with direct access to those with top secret security clearances) say they believe.
The best photos of my house from space are also classified, yet I don’t live in total ignorance about what my house looks like from above.
If the classified photos of my house did show something surprising (maybe I’ve got some graffiti that I’ve never noticed), I would update my beliefs, but because I have pretty good evidence about the top of my house already, I don’t need to wait around for the best possible photos, and in fact I can give pretty good predictions of what those photos will look like.
Suppose my house is in some declassified Navy photos and there’s a bird over my roof. If someone claims that my roof has a picture of a bird on it, this is very bad evidence for my house actually having a picture of a bird on it, and very good evidence for this person having made a mistake.