I think there are some arguments but I deliberately didn’t mention any to keep the post non-political. My claim in the post is only that an answer exists (and that you can’t get it from just the outcome), not that it’s easy to find. I.e., I was only trying to answer the philosophical question, not the practical question.
In which case, isn’t there a much shorter argument. “Given an uncertain event there is some probability that event occurs and that probability depends on the information you have about the event”. That doesn’t seem very interesting to me?
I think there are some arguments but I deliberately didn’t mention any to keep the post non-political. My claim in the post is only that an answer exists (and that you can’t get it from just the outcome), not that it’s easy to find. I.e., I was only trying to answer the philosophical question, not the practical question.
In which case, isn’t there a much shorter argument. “Given an uncertain event there is some probability that event occurs and that probability depends on the information you have about the event”. That doesn’t seem very interesting to me?