Nashville SSC Meetup for August: Topic, “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock.
Relevant Book Review here: https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/
Highlights from the book.
Quote: “There are error bars on the error bars”. “No, it’s error bars all the way down!”
p. 72 Hedgehogs get more attention and are more suited for TV. p. 173. “Fatal attraction to hedgehog pundits and false certainty”.
p. 118 outside versus inside view.
p. 143 epistimic vs aleatory uncertainty.
p. 181 Police believe they are great at detecting lies but are actually poor. They are like “basketball players doing free throws in the dark”.
p. 196 great summary of groupthink.
p. 216 tension between the role of a forecaster and that of a leader. Leaders at some point must decide and commit.
p. 234 scope insensitivity.
Foxes aggregate perspectives.
Q. Are there tools to help you calculate your Brier score?
Nashville August SSC Meetup
Nashville SSC Meetup for August: Topic, “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock.
Relevant Book Review here: https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/
Highlights from the book.
Quote: “There are error bars on the error bars”. “No, it’s error bars all the way down!”
p. 72 Hedgehogs get more attention and are more suited for TV. p. 173. “Fatal attraction to hedgehog pundits and false certainty”.
p. 118 outside versus inside view.
p. 143 epistimic vs aleatory uncertainty.
p. 181 Police believe they are great at detecting lies but are actually poor. They are like “basketball players doing free throws in the dark”.
p. 196 great summary of groupthink.
p. 216 tension between the role of a forecaster and that of a leader. Leaders at some point must decide and commit.
p. 234 scope insensitivity.
Foxes aggregate perspectives.
Q. Are there tools to help you calculate your Brier score?