Up­date Your­self Incrementally

Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Evidence

Ab­sence of Ev­i­dence Is Ev­i­dence of Absence

I Defy the Data!

Your Strength as a Rationalist

The Apoca­lypse Bet

You Can Face Reality

The Virtue of Narrowness

The Proper Use of Doubt

Fo­cus Your Uncertainty

The Im­por­tance of Say­ing “Oops”

Reli­gion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable

God is irrelevant

Belief as Attire

Pro­fess­ing and Cheering

Bayesian Judo

Belief in Belief

Mak­ing Beliefs Pay Rent (in An­ti­ci­pated Ex­pe­riences)

Free will isn’t a con­cept (un­less you mean de­ter­minism)

Two More Things to Un­learn from School

Open Thread

Are Your Ene­mies In­nately Evil?

Cor­re­spon­dence Bias

Risk-Free Bonds Aren’t

One Life Against the World

Scope Insensitivity

Third Alter­na­tives for After­life-ism

The Third Alternative

Be­ware the Unsurprised

Think Like Reality

Univer­sal Law

Univer­sal Fire

Feel­ing Rational

Con­soli­dated Na­ture of Mo­ral­ity Thread

Your Ra­tion­al­ity is My Business

New Im­proved Lottery

Lot­ter­ies: A Waste of Hope

Pri­ors as Math­e­mat­i­cal Objects

Marginally Zero-Sum Efforts

Fu­tur­is­tic Pre­dic­tions as Con­sum­able Goods

Suggested Posts

“In­duc­tive Bias”

De­bi­as­ing as Non-Self-Destruction

Know­ing About Bi­ases Can Hurt People

The Ma­jor­ity Is Always Wrong

The Er­ror of Crowds

Use­ful Statis­ti­cal Biases

“Statis­ti­cal Bias”

Tsuyoku vs. the Egal­i­tar­ian Instinct

Tsuyoku Nar­i­tai! (I Want To Be­come Stronger)