Alice: Governments spent a lot of money doing it, and there are a bunch of studies. And you’re saying it just doesn’t work?
Carol: Why is a cloud opaque? Because it has water droplets in it. If it already has droplets formed, then nucleating droplets does nothing.
Alice: Ah, a common misconception. Cloud seeding is about nucleating ice crystals, not water droplets. Scientists tested the concept before cloud seeding was deployed.
Carol: That was tested in unrealistic conditions: closed chambers with negligible suspended particles. And it’s not that clouds are at altitudes with no particles, either—aerosol number density is similar up to around 9 km.
Alice: The fact is, cloud seeding was done on a large scale, it’s still done some places, and there were a bunch of studies on its effectiveness.
Carol: Those studies showed positive effects only because of the same kind of publication bias you see for bad psychology studies. The better meta-analyses showed negligible effect sizes. That’s why usage mostly stopped, but it was kind of an embarrassing failure with nobody motivated to publicize it, so people weren’t very vocal about that.
Alice: No, if that was the case, there would be more articles and stuff about it, and besides, there are still governments doing cloud seeding today. After so much time to study things, governments wouldn’t do cloud seeding at all if it just didn’t work, which means it must work, so we should do more of it.
cloud seeding doesn’t work
Alice: People should do more cloud seeding.
Carol: Cloud seeding doesn’t work.
Alice: Governments spent a lot of money doing it, and there are a bunch of studies. And you’re saying it just doesn’t work?
Carol: Why is a cloud opaque? Because it has water droplets in it. If it already has droplets formed, then nucleating droplets does nothing.
Alice: Ah, a common misconception. Cloud seeding is about nucleating ice crystals, not water droplets. Scientists tested the concept before cloud seeding was deployed.
Carol: That was tested in unrealistic conditions: closed chambers with negligible suspended particles. And it’s not that clouds are at altitudes with no particles, either—aerosol number density is similar up to around 9 km.
Alice: The fact is, cloud seeding was done on a large scale, it’s still done some places, and there were a bunch of studies on its effectiveness.
Carol: Those studies showed positive effects only because of the same kind of publication bias you see for bad psychology studies. The better meta-analyses showed negligible effect sizes. That’s why usage mostly stopped, but it was kind of an embarrassing failure with nobody motivated to publicize it, so people weren’t very vocal about that.
Alice: No, if that was the case, there would be more articles and stuff about it, and besides, there are still governments doing cloud seeding today. After so much time to study things, governments wouldn’t do cloud seeding at all if it just didn’t work, which means it must work, so we should do more of it.
Who is it correct to believe here?