Link post
Blog post by Alex Irpan. The basic summary:
In 2015, I made the following forecasts about when AGI could happen.10% chance by 204550% chance by 205090% chance by 2070Now that it’s 2020, I’m updating my forecast to:10% chance by 203550% chance by 204590% chance by 2070
In 2015, I made the following forecasts about when AGI could happen.
10% chance by 2045
50% chance by 2050
90% chance by 2070
Now that it’s 2020, I’m updating my forecast to:
10% chance by 2035
50% chance by 2045
The main underlying shifts: more focus on improvements in tools, compute, and unsupervised learning.
Alex Irpan: “My AI Timelines Have Sped Up”
Link post
Blog post by Alex Irpan. The basic summary:
The main underlying shifts: more focus on improvements in tools, compute, and unsupervised learning.