I live in Boston. From what I am hearing, grocery stores are mobbed, day after day, and don’t seem to be taking social distancing seriously. Is this a serious enough problem to keep R0 above 1, and prevent successful suppression?
I have about a 4-week supply of food but I want to save it for the worst 4 weeks of the pandemic. I will take my chances with delivery/the local convenience store until then, both of which involve lower exposure risk than the grocery store by 1-2 orders of magnitude. According to some projections, the worst 4 weeks are about to start. But that seems extremely optimistic to me. My naive expectation was that without social distancing the peak would be in June. Distancing should reduce how bad the peak is, but also extend it, assuming distancing is not sufficient to lower R0 below 1.
I can extend the life of the stockpile if Amazon Fresh ever becomes operational again. This involves non-zero risk, but one delivery a month from them is much less risky than daily uber eats/convenience store runs.
In an extended-peak scenario it doesn’t really matter when I eat the stockpile because I am going to have to get at least some deliveries during the peak. But in a high and short peak scenario, both my ability to avoid all deliveries and the desirability of doing so are a lot higher. In a low and short peak (i.e. successful suppression), the desirability of avoiding all deliveries is less, but I maintain the ability to do so and I might as well, if I can predict it correctly.
[Question] Will grocery stores thwart social distancing, and when should I eat my food stockpile?
I live in Boston. From what I am hearing, grocery stores are mobbed, day after day, and don’t seem to be taking social distancing seriously. Is this a serious enough problem to keep R0 above 1, and prevent successful suppression?
I have about a 4-week supply of food but I want to save it for the worst 4 weeks of the pandemic. I will take my chances with delivery/the local convenience store until then, both of which involve lower exposure risk than the grocery store by 1-2 orders of magnitude. According to some projections, the worst 4 weeks are about to start. But that seems extremely optimistic to me. My naive expectation was that without social distancing the peak would be in June. Distancing should reduce how bad the peak is, but also extend it, assuming distancing is not sufficient to lower R0 below 1.
I can extend the life of the stockpile if Amazon Fresh ever becomes operational again. This involves non-zero risk, but one delivery a month from them is much less risky than daily uber eats/convenience store runs.
In an extended-peak scenario it doesn’t really matter when I eat the stockpile because I am going to have to get at least some deliveries during the peak. But in a high and short peak scenario, both my ability to avoid all deliveries and the desirability of doing so are a lot higher. In a low and short peak (i.e. successful suppression), the desirability of avoiding all deliveries is less, but I maintain the ability to do so and I might as well, if I can predict it correctly.