I didn’t say this in my OP, but people who deny AI could ever become conscious remind me a little of the doctor and parents in this video from The Onion (“America’s finest news source”):
https://www.theonion.com/brain-dead-teen-only-capable-of-rolling-eyes-and-texti-1819595151
[20240311 added link]
@Ann, this is really useful. Many thanks! The deeper we dig into this, the better. Even if people disagree with the numbers, I think having an LLM/AI as the source of these numbers might get more people to pay attention to ASI risk. Thanks again!