But it seems to me that the very obvious GPT-5 continuation of Gwern would say, “Gradualists can predict meaningless benchmarks, but they can’t predict the jumpy surface phenomena we see in real life.”
Don’t you think you’re making a falsifiable prediction here?
Name something that you consider part of the “jumpy surface phenomena” that will show up substantially before the world ends (that you think Paul doesn’t expect). Predict a discontinuity. Operationalize everything and then propose the bet.
Don’t you think you’re making a falsifiable prediction here?
Name something that you consider part of the “jumpy surface phenomena” that will show up substantially before the world ends (that you think Paul doesn’t expect). Predict a discontinuity. Operationalize everything and then propose the bet.
(I’m currently slightly hopeful about the theorem-proving thread, elsewhere and upthread.)