I lean heavily to #5. On very narrow topics, measurement and rationality tends to win, and there’s not actually much debate about it. There really aren’t many ideological rocket launches, for instance. But once you start talking about human behavior or any other complex or game-theoretic situations, it stops being legible and tractable for logic to really do much good without a whole lot of modeling choices being involved.
I lean heavily to #5. On very narrow topics, measurement and rationality tends to win, and there’s not actually much debate about it. There really aren’t many ideological rocket launches, for instance. But once you start talking about human behavior or any other complex or game-theoretic situations, it stops being legible and tractable for logic to really do much good without a whole lot of modeling choices being involved.