Yeah, there are reasons for caution. I think it makes sense for those concerned or non-concerned to make numerical forecasts about the costs & benefits of such questions, rather than the current state of everyone just comparing their vibes against each other. This generalizes to other questions, like the benefits of interpretability, advances in safety fine-tuning, deep learning science, and agent foundations.
Obviously such numbers aren’t the end-of-the-line, and like in biorisk, sometimes they themselves should be kept secret. But it still seems a great advance.
If anyone would like to collaborate on such a project, my DMs are open (not so say this topic is covered, this isn’t exactly my main wheelhouse).
Yeah, there are reasons for caution. I think it makes sense for those concerned or non-concerned to make numerical forecasts about the costs & benefits of such questions, rather than the current state of everyone just comparing their vibes against each other. This generalizes to other questions, like the benefits of interpretability, advances in safety fine-tuning, deep learning science, and agent foundations.
Obviously such numbers aren’t the end-of-the-line, and like in biorisk, sometimes they themselves should be kept secret. But it still seems a great advance.
If anyone would like to collaborate on such a project, my DMs are open (not so say this topic is covered, this isn’t exactly my main wheelhouse).