Thanks! Yeah, there are plenty of people who think takeoff will take more than a decade—but I guess I’ll just say, I’m pretty sure they are all wrong. :) But we should take care to define what the start point of takeoff is. Traditionally it was something like “When the AI itself is doing most of the AI research,” but I’m very willing to consider alternate definitions. I certainly agree it might take more than 10 years if we define things in such a way that takeoff has already begun.
Yeah, sorry, when I said “accidents” I meant “the humans did something by accident”, not “the AI did something by accident”.
Wait, uhoh, I didn’t mean “the AI did something by accident” either… can you elaborate? By “accident” I thought you meant something like “Small-scale disasters, betrayals, etc. caused by AI that are shocking enough to count as warning shots / fire alarms to at least some extent.”
Oh sorry, I misread what you wrote. Sure, maybe, I dunno. I just edited the article to say “some number of years”.
I never meant to make a claim “20 years is definitely in the realm of possibility” but rather to make a claim “even if it takes 20 years, that’s still not necessarily enough to declare that we’re all good”.
I never meant to make a claim “20 years is definitely in the realm of possibility” but rather to make a claim “even if it takes 20 years, that’s still not necessarily enough to declare that we’re all good”.
Thanks! Yeah, there are plenty of people who think takeoff will take more than a decade—but I guess I’ll just say, I’m pretty sure they are all wrong. :) But we should take care to define what the start point of takeoff is. Traditionally it was something like “When the AI itself is doing most of the AI research,” but I’m very willing to consider alternate definitions. I certainly agree it might take more than 10 years if we define things in such a way that takeoff has already begun.
Wait, uhoh, I didn’t mean “the AI did something by accident” either… can you elaborate? By “accident” I thought you meant something like “Small-scale disasters, betrayals, etc. caused by AI that are shocking enough to count as warning shots / fire alarms to at least some extent.”
Oh sorry, I misread what you wrote. Sure, maybe, I dunno. I just edited the article to say “some number of years”.
I never meant to make a claim “20 years is definitely in the realm of possibility” but rather to make a claim “even if it takes 20 years, that’s still not necessarily enough to declare that we’re all good”.
Ah, OK. We are on the same page then.