I’m not sure how much Bayes is getting through here—people are primed to associate “3“ with the trick die, so you can get the right answer via availability or similarity heuristics. I’m trying to think of a way to reformulate this without the priming while keeping it close-to-simple—maybe s/”told you that the number that landed was a 3”/”told you that the number that landed was odd”
This is a good point I hadn’t thought of. Maybe I’m really just priming people to get the right answer and my skills at thought experiments aren’t as good as I thought :/
I’m not sure how much Bayes is getting through here—people are primed to associate “3“ with the trick die, so you can get the right answer via availability or similarity heuristics. I’m trying to think of a way to reformulate this without the priming while keeping it close-to-simple—maybe s/”told you that the number that landed was a 3”/”told you that the number that landed was odd”
Make the jar half four-sided dice, and half 20-sided dice.
This is a good point I hadn’t thought of. Maybe I’m really just priming people to get the right answer and my skills at thought experiments aren’t as good as I thought :/