Based on the past week’s worth of papers, it seems quite likely that we are now in a fast takeoff, and that we have 2-5 years until Moore’s law and organizational prioritization put these systems at AGI.
What makes you say this? What should I read to appreciate how big a deal for AGI the recent papers are?
To be blunt, I don’t believe that you have so little bandwidth given the stakes. If timelines are this short, movement strategy has to pivot considerably, and this requires everyone knowing the evidence. Such a writeup could be on the critical path for the entire movement.
Fair enough. Realize this is a bit of an infohazard. Basically, consider the pieces needed to build EfficientZero with language as the latent space, and then ask yourself which of those pieces hasn’t been shown to basically work in the last week.
[Before you point out the limitations of EfficientZero: i know. But rather than spelling them out, consider whether you can find any other recent papers that suggest how to solve those problems. Actually giving irresponsible readers a research plan is not a good idea.]
Then you’re basically at a dog (minus physical locomotion/control). It is very hard to predict what you will be at if you scale 3 more OOMs, via Moore’s law or organizational intent.
You’ve already posted this, but for the future, I’d suggest checking with the mods first. Once something has been posted, it can’t be removed without creating even more attention.
What makes you say this? What should I read to appreciate how big a deal for AGI the recent papers are?
Reflecting on this and other comments, I decided to edit the original post to retract the call for a “fire alarm”.
I don’t have the bandwidth to write this up, though I strongly encourage someone else to.
To be blunt, I don’t believe that you have so little bandwidth given the stakes. If timelines are this short, movement strategy has to pivot considerably, and this requires everyone knowing the evidence. Such a writeup could be on the critical path for the entire movement.
Fair enough. Realize this is a bit of an infohazard. Basically, consider the pieces needed to build EfficientZero with language as the latent space, and then ask yourself which of those pieces hasn’t been shown to basically work in the last week.
[Before you point out the limitations of EfficientZero: i know. But rather than spelling them out, consider whether you can find any other recent papers that suggest how to solve those problems. Actually giving irresponsible readers a research plan is not a good idea.]
Then you’re basically at a dog (minus physical locomotion/control). It is very hard to predict what you will be at if you scale 3 more OOMs, via Moore’s law or organizational intent.
You’ve already posted this, but for the future, I’d suggest checking with the mods first. Once something has been posted, it can’t be removed without creating even more attention.