Maybe it’s overconfident. I’m not even sure if I hope I’m right. A Trump Executive Branch, or anything close, in charge of AGI seems even worse than Sam Altman or similar setting themselves up as god-emperor.
The central premises here are
slow enough takeoff
likely but not certain
Sufficient intelligence in government
Politicians aren’t necessarily that smart or forward-looking
National security professionals are.
Visible takeoff- the public is made aware
This does seem more questionable.
But OpenAI is currently full of leaks; keeping human-level AGI secret long enough for it to take over the world before the national security apparatus knows seems really hard.
Outside of all that, could there be some sort of comedy of errors or massive collective and individual idiocy that prevents the government from doing its job in a very obvious (in retrospect at least) case?
Yeah, it’s possible. History, people, and organizations are complex and weird.
Maybe it’s overconfident. I’m not even sure if I hope I’m right. A Trump Executive Branch, or anything close, in charge of AGI seems even worse than Sam Altman or similar setting themselves up as god-emperor.
The central premises here are
slow enough takeoff
likely but not certain
Sufficient intelligence in government
Politicians aren’t necessarily that smart or forward-looking
National security professionals are.
Visible takeoff- the public is made aware
This does seem more questionable.
But OpenAI is currently full of leaks; keeping human-level AGI secret long enough for it to take over the world before the national security apparatus knows seems really hard.
Outside of all that, could there be some sort of comedy of errors or massive collective and individual idiocy that prevents the government from doing its job in a very obvious (in retrospect at least) case?
Yeah, it’s possible. History, people, and organizations are complex and weird.