How many lives do you think can be saved for between $5k and $10k?
The smaller the number, the more “~$5k per life saved” looks like an impact certificate you’re buying from Good Ventures at a price assessed by GiveWell, rather than a serious claim that for an extra $5k you can cause a life to be saved through the intervention you funded.
The larger the number, the more the marginal cost looks like the average costs for large numbers of lives saved (and therefore the “why don’t they do an experiment at scale?” argument holds).
Claims that you can make the world different in well-specified ways through giving (e.g. more lives saved by the intervention you funded) imply the latter scenario, and substantively conflict with the former one.
How many lives do you think can be saved for between $5k and $10k? The smaller the number, the more “~$5k per life saved” looks like an impact certificate you’re buying from Good Ventures at a price assessed by GiveWell, rather than a serious claim that for an extra $5k you can cause a life to be saved through the intervention you funded.
The larger the number, the more the marginal cost looks like the average costs for large numbers of lives saved (and therefore the “why don’t they do an experiment at scale?” argument holds).
Claims that you can make the world different in well-specified ways through giving (e.g. more lives saved by the intervention you funded) imply the latter scenario, and substantively conflict with the former one.
Do you disagree with this model? If so, how?