Knowing how theories and experiements were chosen would make this more sensible problem. Having that information would affect our expectations about theories—as others have noted there are a lot of theories one could form in ad hoc manner, but question is which of them was selected.
First theory has been selected with first ten experiements and it seems to have survived second set of experiements. If experiements were independent from first set of experiements and from each other this is quite unlikely so this is strong evidence that first theory is the connection between experiements.
Given reasonable way of choosing theories I would rate both theories as likely, but given finite resources and fallible theorists I would prefer first theory as we have evidence that it was chosen sensibly and that the problem is explainable with theory of its calibre, but only to extent how far I doubt rationality of theorist making second theory.
Knowing how theories and experiements were chosen would make this more sensible problem. Having that information would affect our expectations about theories—as others have noted there are a lot of theories one could form in ad hoc manner, but question is which of them was selected.
First theory has been selected with first ten experiements and it seems to have survived second set of experiements. If experiements were independent from first set of experiements and from each other this is quite unlikely so this is strong evidence that first theory is the connection between experiements.
Given reasonable way of choosing theories I would rate both theories as likely, but given finite resources and fallible theorists I would prefer first theory as we have evidence that it was chosen sensibly and that the problem is explainable with theory of its calibre, but only to extent how far I doubt rationality of theorist making second theory.