TBH, I feel like it can be summed up as “well, there might be a Great Filter somewhere along the line, therefore no paradox”.
Yep, this is the point, we should not be surprised to see no aliens, because there is a likely great filter, or at least a serious mistake in our calculations, and thus it doesn’t matter that we live in a large universe, since there is quite a high probability that we are just alone.
But they also isolate the Great Filter to “Life is ridiculously rare”, and they also isolate the Great Filter to the past, which means that there’s not much implications other than “life is rare” from seeing no aliens.
The earliness of life appearing on Earth isn’t amazingly-consistent with life’s appearance on Earth being a filter-break. It suggests either abiogenesis is relatively-easy or that panspermia is easy (as I noted, in the latter case abiogenesis could be as hard as you like but that doesn’t explain the Great Silence).
Frankly, it’s premature to be certain it’s “abiogenesis rare, no panspermia” before we’ve even got a close look at Earthlike exoplanets.
Yep, this is the point, we should not be surprised to see no aliens, because there is a likely great filter, or at least a serious mistake in our calculations, and thus it doesn’t matter that we live in a large universe, since there is quite a high probability that we are just alone.
But they also isolate the Great Filter to “Life is ridiculously rare”, and they also isolate the Great Filter to the past, which means that there’s not much implications other than “life is rare” from seeing no aliens.
The earliness of life appearing on Earth isn’t amazingly-consistent with life’s appearance on Earth being a filter-break. It suggests either abiogenesis is relatively-easy or that panspermia is easy (as I noted, in the latter case abiogenesis could be as hard as you like but that doesn’t explain the Great Silence).
Frankly, it’s premature to be certain it’s “abiogenesis rare, no panspermia” before we’ve even got a close look at Earthlike exoplanets.