(Note that my numbers re: short-horizon systems + 12 OOMs being enough, and for +12 OOMs in general, changed since an earlier version you read, to 35% and 65% respectively.)
I built it by taking Ajeya’s distribution from her report and modifying it so that: --25% is in the red zone (the next 6 ooms) --65% is in the red+blue zone (the next 12) --It looks as smooth and reasonable as I could make it subject to those constraints, and generally departs only a little from Ajeya’s. Note that it still has 10% in the purple zone representing “Not even +50 OOMs would be enough with 2020′s ideas”
I encourage you (and everyone else!) to play around with drawing distributions, I found it helpful. You should be able to make a copy of my drawing in Grid Paint and then modify it.
(Note that my numbers re: short-horizon systems + 12 OOMs being enough, and for +12 OOMs in general, changed since an earlier version you read, to 35% and 65% respectively.)
Ok, cool! Here, is this what your distribution looks like basically?
Joe’s Distribution?? - Grid Paint (grid-paint.com)
I built it by taking Ajeya’s distribution from her report and modifying it so that:
--25% is in the red zone (the next 6 ooms)
--65% is in the red+blue zone (the next 12)
--It looks as smooth and reasonable as I could make it subject to those constraints, and generally departs only a little from Ajeya’s.
Note that it still has 10% in the purple zone representing “Not even +50 OOMs would be enough with 2020′s ideas”
I encourage you (and everyone else!) to play around with drawing distributions, I found it helpful. You should be able to make a copy of my drawing in Grid Paint and then modify it.