Thank you. That helps, but it doesn’t explain why my post was downvoted into oblivion (until people upvoted it to conform to Eliezer’s opinion) apparently based on a rubric that judges posts solely on their suitability for copying and pasting into a prediction market.
Well, to give one data point: I downvoted your comment when it was at −1 for being (what seemed to me) pointless and depressing. When you explained it was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek I reverted the downvote, although to be honest I still don’t get it.
I also downvoted Eliezer’s comment for being weirdly irrelevant as far as I can tell, and upvoted Spencer_Sleep’s criticism.
I think gwern might have just mixed up where your comment was posted; a lot of people have made top-level comments in his PB thread just containing similar predictions which he’s asked for clarification of.
Heh. To be honest, I’m not that confident that Hermione will die. If this story has a happy ending, I would hope Harry has somebody close to him left after the dust settles. I do think this chapter means that Quirrell’s plan is to kill Hermione, but I’m not supremely confident that Harry won’t pull another trick out of his bag.
What I am supremely confident of is that when it does hit the fan, things are going to be bad. Harry hasn’t gone through all that very much yet, he needs something tragic to happen. Hermione dying horribly is about the most tragic thing that could happen to him, and Eliezer knows that, and I don’t trust or expect Eliezer to show mercy to Harry or Hermione or me.
So like I said elsewhere, my original post was not meant to establish a prediction that I can point to later, it was simply my attempt to look into the abyss, to be pessimistic, to imagine the worst possible thing happening, so hopefully nothing worse ends up happening.
I don’t think Hermione dying is anywhere near the worst thing that could happen; I mean, come on, there’s plenty of worse possibilities. Draco and Hermione could do a mutual slaying; Draco could kill Hermione and then Harry has to kill Draco; heck, Hermione could unjustly kill Draco and then Harry has to kill her. That sort of thing.
Thank you. That helps, but it doesn’t explain why my post was downvoted into oblivion (until people upvoted it to conform to Eliezer’s opinion) apparently based on a rubric that judges posts solely on their suitability for copying and pasting into a prediction market.
Well, to give one data point: I downvoted your comment when it was at −1 for being (what seemed to me) pointless and depressing. When you explained it was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek I reverted the downvote, although to be honest I still don’t get it.
I also downvoted Eliezer’s comment for being weirdly irrelevant as far as I can tell, and upvoted Spencer_Sleep’s criticism.
I think gwern might have just mixed up where your comment was posted; a lot of people have made top-level comments in his PB thread just containing similar predictions which he’s asked for clarification of.
Predictions know no article bounds! Such confidence in predictions as 75th deserves either reward or punishment.
Heh. To be honest, I’m not that confident that Hermione will die. If this story has a happy ending, I would hope Harry has somebody close to him left after the dust settles. I do think this chapter means that Quirrell’s plan is to kill Hermione, but I’m not supremely confident that Harry won’t pull another trick out of his bag.
What I am supremely confident of is that when it does hit the fan, things are going to be bad. Harry hasn’t gone through all that very much yet, he needs something tragic to happen. Hermione dying horribly is about the most tragic thing that could happen to him, and Eliezer knows that, and I don’t trust or expect Eliezer to show mercy to Harry or Hermione or me.
So like I said elsewhere, my original post was not meant to establish a prediction that I can point to later, it was simply my attempt to look into the abyss, to be pessimistic, to imagine the worst possible thing happening, so hopefully nothing worse ends up happening.
I don’t think Hermione dying is anywhere near the worst thing that could happen; I mean, come on, there’s plenty of worse possibilities. Draco and Hermione could do a mutual slaying; Draco could kill Hermione and then Harry has to kill Draco; heck, Hermione could unjustly kill Draco and then Harry has to kill her. That sort of thing.