Imagine that you know there is a strong correlation between X and Y. Statistically competent scholars have extensively examined the causal relationship between X and Y and have failed to find a significant causal relationship and have failed to rule out the possibility that there is a significant causal relationship.
Would it be reasonable for you to claim that the causal relationship between X and Y probably isn’t too strong or it would have shown up clearly on statistical analysis? At the very least, should learning of the negative results of the scholars cause you to decrease your estimate of the causal relationship between X and Y?
What does lack of evidence of a causal relationship tell you?
Imagine that you know there is a strong correlation between X and Y. Statistically competent scholars have extensively examined the causal relationship between X and Y and have failed to find a significant causal relationship and have failed to rule out the possibility that there is a significant causal relationship.
Would it be reasonable for you to claim that the causal relationship between X and Y probably isn’t too strong or it would have shown up clearly on statistical analysis? At the very least, should learning of the negative results of the scholars cause you to decrease your estimate of the causal relationship between X and Y?