Epistemic status: I am confused and trying to become less confused.
So, our shepherd community noticed the wolf. It’s a small wolf, about the size of a chihuahua, and is unlikely to cause any serious damage. Should we cry “wolf”?
Possible arguments against crying “wolf”
When someone cries “wolf”, villagers think that what is really meant is “a big wolf that is going to eat us all”. Therefore, villagers will decide that we are lying, and will not listen to us next time.
Maybe, publicity is useless, and can even harm us, we need to develop anti-wolf weapons ourselves.
In fact, we’re not sure if it’s really a wolf and not a duck with a strange combination of mutations that makes it look like a wolf, run like a wolf, and howl like a wolf.
If this miniature wolf bites someone’s fingers, villagers may finally recognize that wolves are dangerous.
Possible arguments for crying “wolf”
If we now ignore a chihuahua-sized wolf, it makes it more likely that we will ignore a corgi-sized wolf, then a sheepdog-sized wolf, and then a normal-sized wolf.
If we now cry “wolf” and no one comes to the rescue, then later we can use this precedent to argue for the creation of adequate wolf prevention systems.
If we now cry “wolf” and help comes to us, then next time villagers will already have the experience of responding to the cries “wolf” and it will be easier for them to come to the rescue again.
We have serious concerns that sufficiently advanced normal-sized wolves will have stealth technology that allows them to pretend to be the size of a chihuahua.
Should we cry “wolf”?
Epistemic status: I am confused and trying to become less confused.
So, our shepherd community noticed the wolf. It’s a small wolf, about the size of a chihuahua, and is unlikely to cause any serious damage. Should we cry “wolf”?
Possible arguments against crying “wolf”
When someone cries “wolf”, villagers think that what is really meant is “a big wolf that is going to eat us all”. Therefore, villagers will decide that we are lying, and will not listen to us next time.
Maybe, publicity is useless, and can even harm us, we need to develop anti-wolf weapons ourselves.
In fact, we’re not sure if it’s really a wolf and not a duck with a strange combination of mutations that makes it look like a wolf, run like a wolf, and howl like a wolf.
If this miniature wolf bites someone’s fingers, villagers may finally recognize that wolves are dangerous.
Possible arguments for crying “wolf”
If we now ignore a chihuahua-sized wolf, it makes it more likely that we will ignore a corgi-sized wolf, then a sheepdog-sized wolf, and then a normal-sized wolf.
If we now cry “wolf” and no one comes to the rescue, then later we can use this precedent to argue for the creation of adequate wolf prevention systems.
If we now cry “wolf” and help comes to us, then next time villagers will already have the experience of responding to the cries “wolf” and it will be easier for them to come to the rescue again.
We have serious concerns that sufficiently advanced normal-sized wolves will have stealth technology that allows them to pretend to be the size of a chihuahua.
What is the relative weights of these arguments?
What arguments did I miss?