You’d have to draw that distinction cleanly. So you’d have to do this in two stages, maybe. First, you decide whether or not you want to fire the CEO for non-predictive causes. Then, you hold a prediction market, and fire the CEO if and only if the prediction market says so, perhaps with a threshold rule set during phase 1. Otherwise, the board can look at the market, and it will impact their decision otherwise, especially if they prefer one way of firing to the other (e.g. they want the credit or to avoid the blame, or the payouts are different, etc).
Also, if you include cases where the market exists but gets refunded, that decreases market interest and increases distortions.
You’d have to draw that distinction cleanly. So you’d have to do this in two stages, maybe. First, you decide whether or not you want to fire the CEO for non-predictive causes. Then, you hold a prediction market, and fire the CEO if and only if the prediction market says so, perhaps with a threshold rule set during phase 1. Otherwise, the board can look at the market, and it will impact their decision otherwise, especially if they prefer one way of firing to the other (e.g. they want the credit or to avoid the blame, or the payouts are different, etc).
Also, if you include cases where the market exists but gets refunded, that decreases market interest and increases distortions.