Benja: Allan, you are right that if the LHC would destroy the world, and you’re a surviving observer, you will find yourself in a branch where LHC has failed, and that if the LHC would not destroy the world and you’re a surviving observer, this is much less likely. But contrary to mostly everybody’s naive intuition, it doesn’t follow that if you’re a surviving observer, LHC has probably failed.
I don’t believe that’s what I’ve been saying; the question is whether the LHC failing is evidence for the LHC being dangerous, not whether surviving is evidence for the LHC having failed.
Benja: Allan, you are right that if the LHC would destroy the world, and you’re a surviving observer, you will find yourself in a branch where LHC has failed, and that if the LHC would not destroy the world and you’re a surviving observer, this is much less likely. But contrary to mostly everybody’s naive intuition, it doesn’t follow that if you’re a surviving observer, LHC has probably failed.
I don’t believe that’s what I’ve been saying; the question is whether the LHC failing is evidence for the LHC being dangerous, not whether surviving is evidence for the LHC having failed.