How is PredictionBook for sharing evidence for one’s predictions, back-and-forth discussion, logging ‘categories’ of predictions, detailed statistics (such as calibration changes over time, more granularity than 10% increments, etc.) and so on? Are there any specific features of PredictionBook you would recommend to me?
I ask because:
I want to participate in readable discussion as well as log my predictions; browsing as a not-logged-in user, PredictionBook appears to have a much less readable presentation for discussions.
I often have domain-specific prediction techniques and would want to check my calibration for each technique (and each domain) as well as overall. (To take MOR predictions as an example, I might make some predictions based on a feeling of “this looks like foreshadowing”, others based on looking for themes, still others based on knowledge outside MOR itself, … ) Come to think of it, both domains and categories can also overlap, but I still want to have that kind of feature available whether I make the graphs myself or not.
I do intend to check my calibration on my MOR predictions once MOR ends, regardless of where I put the predictions up.
Sharing your prediction in this thread doesn’t get others to share their own numbers. Predictionbook on the other hand usually does. It leads to communal prediction making.
It also gives you calibration statistics.
I often have domain-specific prediction techniques and would want to check my calibration for each technique (and each domain) as well as overall.
You could have a account for every prediction technique.
How is PredictionBook for sharing evidence for one’s predictions, back-and-forth discussion, logging ‘categories’ of predictions, detailed statistics (such as calibration changes over time, more granularity than 10% increments, etc.) and so on? Are there any specific features of PredictionBook you would recommend to me?
I ask because:
I want to participate in readable discussion as well as log my predictions; browsing as a not-logged-in user, PredictionBook appears to have a much less readable presentation for discussions.
I often have domain-specific prediction techniques and would want to check my calibration for each technique (and each domain) as well as overall. (To take MOR predictions as an example, I might make some predictions based on a feeling of “this looks like foreshadowing”, others based on looking for themes, still others based on knowledge outside MOR itself, … ) Come to think of it, both domains and categories can also overlap, but I still want to have that kind of feature available whether I make the graphs myself or not.
I do intend to check my calibration on my MOR predictions once MOR ends, regardless of where I put the predictions up.
Sharing your prediction in this thread doesn’t get others to share their own numbers. Predictionbook on the other hand usually does. It leads to communal prediction making.
It also gives you calibration statistics.
You could have a account for every prediction technique.
That seems like an excessive amount of work, especially once overlapping categories and domains come into play.