So the rise of AGI will mark the third phase shift to the global economy.
I think regardless of whether AGI is the cause of the phase shift, it will definitely be a mark of the next phase in this model, much like how atomic bombs weren’t a cause of the Industrial Revolution but they are still a notable phenomenon inside it. AGI being the cause is probably ~ 65% for me.
What will the FOURTH phase shift owe to, and according to your model, when will it happen?
I have no idea. The model will obviously fail to work once growth becomes so fast that we reach physical limits, much like the hyperbolic model, but my thinking here is close to Robin Hanson’s: it’s ~ impossible to say what the fourth phase shift would be like, but the timing would probably be only a few decades (at most) after the third phase shift.
I think regardless of whether AGI is the cause of the phase shift, it will definitely be a mark of the next phase in this model, much like how atomic bombs weren’t a cause of the Industrial Revolution but they are still a notable phenomenon inside it. AGI being the cause is probably ~ 65% for me.
I have no idea. The model will obviously fail to work once growth becomes so fast that we reach physical limits, much like the hyperbolic model, but my thinking here is close to Robin Hanson’s: it’s ~ impossible to say what the fourth phase shift would be like, but the timing would probably be only a few decades (at most) after the third phase shift.